Predicted Final Results

The Current Electoral Vote Predictor has predicted the final electoral college results for the 2004 presidential campaign. The prediction is a solid win for Kerry with 306 electoral votes and 14 undecided electoral votes from states that are exactly tied. (It should be noted the site owner is a Democrat.) A key assumption in this prediction is the expectation that the undecided vote will break 2:1 in favor of Kerry. I have always believed undecideds, barring exceptional circumstances, will break in favor of the incumbent (look at the final polls in 2000, which generally had Bush ahead by a few points, with the final results, where Gore won by a small margin; his final numbers increased relative to the final poll by about the size the undecided vote). I have reanalyzed the November 1 data from the site and applied the assumption that the undecided vote will break 2:1 in favor of Bush. With that assumption, the electoral vote breaks down 235 for Bush, 251 for Kerry, and 52 undecided (Florida, New Mexico, and Ohio).